TEAMS' 2023 PRESSURE WOES AND THE PASS RUSH STARS OF THE 2024 CLASS

In the world of NFL defense, generating pressure is a necessity. The ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks can swing the momentum of a game and dictate its outcome. Pressure on passers forces hurried decisions, disrupts timing, and creates turnovers, giving defensive units the edge they need to control the field.

Without consistent pressure, defenses risk being picked apart by skilled quarterbacks and dynamic offenses. It's the pass rush that sets the tone for a team's defensive dominance, making it one of the most critical elements of success in the modern NFL.

Unfortunately, the teams in the league's doldrums have the biggest need for effective pass rushers. While many franchises will prioritize other positional needs like quarterback and wide receiver, the incoming 2024 rookie class has a handful of edge rushers that will be ready to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks.

Pressure Problems

There was a clear correlation between pressure rate and success in the NFL in 2023

Generating pressure in the NFL is paramount. It's the linchpin that can turn the tide of a game, dictating outcomes and disrupting opposing quarterbacks' rhythm. However, this vital aspect of the game often eludes the struggling teams at the bottom of the NFL, and it was clearly a factor in their lack of success last season.

While generating pressure isn't the sole determinant of wins and losses in the NFL, there was a clear linear relationship between defensive pressure rate and game outcomes in 2023. It's not surprising to see teams like the Carolina Panthers and Washington Commanders, which had the two lowest pressure rates by any defense last season, also finish at the bottom of the NFL standings.

On the flip side, among the teams that finished in the top 12 in defensive pressure rate, the New York Jets were the lone team that failed to make the playoffs last season.

Teams like the Chicago Bears, Commanders, and New England Patriots, who hold the top three picks in the upcoming draft, obviously have more pressing needs at the quarterback position.

However, with clear weaknesses inhibiting the other struggling teams in the NFL, don't rule out anyone trading up for a star pass rusher or spending a premium pick on an edge player early in the NFL Draft. As we delve into the 2024 draft class, let's explore the potential game-changers on the edge.

Dallas Turner, Alabama

Turner generated the 3rd-most pressures by any Alabama edge rusher since 2014

Productive right out of the gate as a freshman, Alabama's Dallas Turner has been one of the more productive Crimson Tide defensive ends over the last decade.

According to PFF, only 2023 third-overall pick Will Anderson Jr. (173) and 2020 third-round pick Anfernee Jennings (108) generated more pressures since 2014 than Turner (103) did in his three-year career at Alabama.

An intriguing advanced statistic that PFF tracks for pass rushing is a metric called "beaten by defender"—which is defined as a play where a pass rusher beats a pass protector and would have earned a pressure, but was denied by outside factors. Turner amassed 38 "beaten by defenders" over his last three years, the highest among any Alabama edge rusher since 2014.

Turner's exceptional ability to get after the quarterback stems from his remarkable athleticism, ranking number one in the 2024 edge class according to PlayerProfiler.

Jared Verse, Florida State

Verse tallied the most QB hits among the top edge rushers in the 2024 draft class

While Turner relies on his athleticism and agility as a bendy pass rusher, Florida State's Jared Verse relies on his brute strength to overpower blockers. Verse began his career playing for the Albany Great Danes before transferring to Florida State, where he logged two seasons as a Seminole.

Verse's 43 QB hits in college, the most among the 17 edge rushers in NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah's top-150 prospects, showcase his ability to bulldoze pass protectors and knock the quarterback down.

Over the past two seasons, Verse's 21.5 percent pass rush win rate ranks third among these prospects. Additionally, his 91.3 PFF pass rushing grade since 2022 ranks tied for fourth among that same group of players.

Laiatu Latu, UCLA

Latu improved in every single college season as a pass rusher

Recently drawing top-10 buzz, UCLA's Laiatu Latu joins Turner and Verse as the edge rushers most likely to be taken off the board in the first round, and maybe even in the top 10.

Latu began his collegiate career at Washington before transferring to UCLA. Despite missing the 2020 and 2021 seasons due to a neck injury that almost jeopardized his football future, one particularly enticing aspect of Latu's game is his continuous improvement as a pass rusher throughout his college journey.

Just last season, Latu led all the top 17 edge prospects in several key metrics according to PFF: pass rush grade (94.3), sacks (15, tied for 1st with Javon Solomon), pressure rate (21.4 percent), and pass rush win rate (26.2 percent). This performance proves he is fully recovered from his injury and ready to terrorize NFL quarterbacks.

The Best of the Rest

Chop Robinson is the only other edge rusher projected to go in the 1st round

Penn State's Chop Robinson is the only other edge rusher projected to be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night, and he should not be overlooked, especially after his explosive NFL combine performance back in February.

According to Next Gen Stats, Robinson's 4.48 40-yard dash was the fifth-fastest among edge rushers weighing 250+ pounds at the combine since 2003, and compares similarly to Rams surprise stud rookie Byron Young.

Outside of Robinson, there are a few edge rushers who aren't getting a ton of buzz but have impressive production profiles. Washington's Bralen Trice boasts the highest pass rush win rate (21.7 percent) and tied for the second-highest pressure rate (18.7 percent) among the top 17 edge rushers in the 2024 class. Surprisingly, consensus mock drafts project Trice to go later in the draft, likely due to sub-par testing at the combine.

Another prospect flying under the radar is Colorado State's Mohamed Kamara. Despite hailing from a small school, Kamara's statistics speak volumes. His career pressure rate of 18.8 percent tops the list among the best edge prospects in the class. Additionally, his 31 sacks and 148 total pressures both rank second, according to PFF.

This year's edge rusher class boasts a formidable "big three" in Turner, Verse and Latu, with Robinson closely following. In GIVEMESPORT's latest mock draft, all four are projected to go in the first round. While these prospects headline the class, there's also depth to be found beyond the initial selections.

Teams can still find impactful contributors in later rounds, making this draft class one to watch for defensive upgrades across the board.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise.

2024-04-25T05:23:28Z dg43tfdfdgfd